Future of 30-Year Mortgages at Risk?
Proposals to phase out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may make 30-year fixed-rate mortgages harder to find, housing experts say.

An outline drafted by the Treasury Department, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the White House and circulated last month calls for winding down Fannie and Freddie over the next five to seven years. Congress continues to debate the future of Fannie and Freddie, and how and whether it should move to phase out the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). For its part, the Obama administration has argued for scrapping the GSEs, but replacing them with some form of federal involvement in mortgage financing.

But housing experts warn that 30-year fixed rate mortgages — a popular choice among buyers — might become harder to find and more expensive without Fannie and Freddie to buy these loans. Banks may be less willing to extend credit at a fixed rate over such a long term, housing experts note, since investors often prefer loans with adjustable rates rather than loans with longer terms, which expose them to interest rate risk.

“Traditionally, banks have been less willing to keep 30-year fixed-rate mortgages on their balance sheets, so in the absence of a vibrant securitization market, banks would more heavily favor adjustable-rate products,” John Mechem, a spokesman for the Mortgage Bankers Association, told The New York Times.

There is a lot of uncertainty about the process of phasing out Fannie and Freddie and how it will affect mortgage products, Barry Zigas, the director of housing policy at the Consumer Federation of America, told The New York Times.

Alex J. Pollock, a former chief executive of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, told The New York Times that he believes 30-year loans would remain available regardless of a federal guarantee, but they might be more difficult to find and lenders might require larger down payments and better credit scores.

“One of the reasons that American housing finance is in such bad shape right now is the 30-year mortgage,” Pollock argues. “For many people, it’s not at all clear that that’s the best product.”

Source: “A Plan to Phase Out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” The New York Times (March 6, 2011) and “Without Loan Giants, 30-Year Mortgage May Fade Away,” The New York Times (March 4, 2011)

Sellers Need to Get Practical About Price
Sellers whose homes have lingered on the market for months–or years, in some cases–are banking on this spring to turn the tide.

Foreclosures and short sales are still flooding the market, which means many sellers are still up against big inventories and some big bargains that may pull away buyers.

As such, more real estate pros say it’s time to have tough conversations with sellers about slashing their sales price of their home, particularly if it hasn’t garnered any traffic in recent months or years. After all, spring usually brings out more buyers, as home shoppers look to buy and move before the next school year.

“We have had a problem with sellers who are nostalgic for the way it was,” says Ron Phipps, a Warwick, R.I., real estate professional and the president of the National Association of REALTORS®. He says what home owners could fetch for their home during the housing boom is not practical today. “You have to be where the market is, not where it was,” Phipps says.

Phipps suggests encouraging sellers to check out the competition by visiting open houses or viewing online virtual tours of similar homes for sale to see how the seller’s house compares in price and appearance.

“You have to be very realistic about what is keeping your home from selling,” Phipps says. “Sometimes it may actually be the person in the mirror, if your expectations are not realistic. Ultimately, there is a price at which all things sell.”

Source: “Longtime Listings Try Again in Spring,” Associated Press (March 1, 2011)

There might finally be some good news this year about the nation’s dismal housing market. Or, at least, the bad news could stop.

Either way, it will be welcome relief for current homeowners as well as for potential real-estate investors. Reasons to be optimistic have been sadly lacking since the housing bubble burst in 2006.

For sure, last week we learned the widely watched S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 1% in December, its fifth straight decline. The index tracks 20 major markets.

Andrew Roberts

But that figure belies real reasons to be optimistic, according to some experts. If they are right, it might make sense to jump into real estate. The trick is avoiding getting burned again, and it doesn’t necessarily mean owning a home.

First, let’s recap the economic signs a bottom is close.

Houses Are a Good Deal

Housing is the most affordable it has been in decades, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. They don’t just look at house prices. They also look at incomes.

Nationally, the cost of a house is the equivalent of about 19 months of total pay for an average family, the lowest level in 35 years. Prices usually average close to two years’ pay, although that varies nationally.

At the peak, midway through the last decade, a home in Los Angeles cost the equivalent of 4.5 years’ pay. The average price has since fallen to just over two years’ income now. That’s well below its pre-bubble average of 2.6 years. This means average Los Angeles homes are cheaper in “real terms” than they were typically during the period 1989 through 2003.

The opposite is true around the Washington beltway, where it will take 26 months of pay to buy a home, versus the historical norm of 22 months.

In the end, it will be affordability that will drive people to buy homes.

“Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own,” says Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla.

It is definitely bullish. But what about timing?

“Housing prices will probably bottom in 2011,” says Scott Simon, a managing director at money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. He foresaw the housing crash, helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.

Mr. Simon says prices might dip another 5%. Still, in the scheme of things, that’s small. Consider this: In some markets, home prices have fallen by half or more since 2006.

For instance, in once-hot Miami you can snap up an average house for under $166,000, according to recent data from the National Association of Realtors. That’s down from $371,000 in 2006. Another 5% drop would take it to $158,000.

Investors Stepping Up

Here’s another sign the market is nearing a bottom: Investors have started to buy up houses and condos, in some instances paying entirely in cash. That’s a far cry from the heady bubble days when borrowed money seemed the key to riches. The bubble-era speculators who got burned tended to buy at the peak and borrowed heavily to do so. When the crash came, they quickly saw their wealth erased.

Take Miami again. Last year, more than half of all transactions were made entirely in cash, according to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal. That compares with 13% of deals in the last quarter of 2006, the height of the bubble. Similarly, in Phoenix 42% of sales in 2010 went to all-cash buyers, up threefold since 2008.

It’s a sign that these investors are betting on a rebound. Investors buying at current prices are looking for deals, or so-called bottom fishing. They typically like to pay entirely in cash (or with a relatively small loan) to speed up transactions. That can be vital for an investor wishing to lock in a deal fast.

If this is a turn in the market, then it might make sense to go out and buy a home. But, warns Pimco’s Mr. Simon, “buy in areas you really know.”

Plan to Stay Put

Buy and hold. While the good news is that the worst of the housing crash might be over, the bad news is that the fast gains of the glory days of 2005 and 2006 won’t be back any time soon. So to cover the costs of buying and selling, and what could be a prolonged recovery, plan to own for more than 10 years, explains Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris Bank.

Also remember that borrowing money to buy a house can still be risky. If you pay for a $100,000 property with $20,000 cash and borrow the rest, a dip in the value of $20,000 would leave you with zero equity. On top of that, you’d have to pay to maintain and repair the property, something not necessary when renting.

Home Buying Without a House

There are other ways to benefit from a real-estate rebound than directly buying a house. Such investments include stocks, mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. Unlike homes, which typically cost tens of thousands of dollars, these financial investments can be made in smaller amounts and typically are easy to sell.

Weiss Research’s Mr. Larson says although new homes are oversupplied, home builders might benefit from a rebound as the situation rights itself.

Rather than pick individual stocks, he says, it probably makes sense for small investors to pick broader investments that hold many different stocks. In particular, he points to the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which tracks a basket of home-builder stocks.

Mr. Larson also highlights specialized mutual funds such as the Fidelity Select Construction & Housing fund (FSHOX), which tracks home builders as well as home-improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowes that would also likely benefit from a housing recovery.

—Simon Constable is author of the forthcoming book “The WSJ Guide to the Fifty Economic Indicators That Really Matter: From Big Macs to ‘Zombie Banks,’ the Indicators Smart Investors Watch to Beat the Market.” simon.constable@dowjones.com

More Americans Confident About Home Ownership
Americans are more confident about the stability of home prices than they were at the beginning of 2010, according to Fannie Mae’s latest national housing survey, conducted between October 2010 and December 2010.. And when it comes to home ownership, younger Americans are particularly optimistic, the survey finds.

Nearly 80 percent of all respondents, including home owners and renters, surveyed said they thought housing prices would hold steady or increase over the next 12 months–which is up from 73 percent in January 2010. In fact, survey respondents expressed more confidence over the stability of home prices than they did about the overall strength of the economy. Sixty-one percent said the economy is heading on the wrong track.

Young Americans, Hispanics, and African-Americans were the most positive about their views on home ownership among the general population, according to the survey. Nearly 60 percent of Generation Y respondents (those between 18-34 years old) say that buying a home offers a lot of potential as an investment. Also, more than one-third of Hispanics and African Americans say they plan to buy a home within the next three years, compared to one in four of the general population.

“We are also seeing encouraging signs in the positive attitudes toward home ownership among younger Americans, despite the severe impact of the housing crisis on Generation Y,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “But most respondents to our survey continue to lack confidence in the strength of the economic recovery, and they are less optimistic about their ability to buy a home in the years ahead. This sense of uncertainty is weighing on the housing recovery today and reshaping expectations for housing for the future.”

Source: “Fannie Mae’s Latest National Housing Survey Shows Key Changes in Americans’ Attitudes Toward Housing and the Economy,” RISMedia (March 1, 2011)

Pending Home Sales Decline in January
Pending home sales eased moderately for the second straight month in January, but remain 20.6 percent above the cyclical low last June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, declined 2.8 percent to 88.9 based on contracts signed in January from a downwardly revised 91.5 in December. The index is 1.5 percent below the 90.3 level in January 2010 when a tax credit stimulus was in place. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, points to the broader trend. “The housing market is healing with sales fluctuating at times, depending on the flow of distressed properties coming on the market,” he said.

“While home buyers over the past two years have been exceptionally successful with historically low default rates, there is still an elevated level of shadow inventory of distressed homes from past lending mistakes that need to go through the system,” Yun said. “We should not expect the recovery to be in a straight upward path — it will zig-zag at times.”

The pace of January existing-home sales, 5.36 million, is slightly higher than NAR’s annual forecast for 2011. If contract activity stays on its present course, there should be an 8 percent increase in total existing-home sales this year.

“The broad fundamentals for a housing recovery are developing,” Yun said. “Job growth, high housing affordability and rising apartment rent are conducive to bringing more buyers into the market. Some buyers may be looking to real estate as a hedge against potential future inflation.”

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.4 percent to 73.5 in January and is 3.0 percent below January 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 7.3 percent in January to 78.0 and is 3.2 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 1.4 percent to an index of 97.7 but are 0.4 percent below January 2010. In the West the index fell 5.2 percent to 98.7 and is 0.9 percent below a year ago.

— NAR

2011 Rebound: Affordability High, Investors Back
Plenty of signs point to the housing market finally bottoming out and moving into rebound mode this year, experts say in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal.

Investors, who were burned when the housing bubble burst in 2006, are back on the market, betting on a rebound, and snagging up houses and condos in all-cash deals.

What’s more, housing is at the most affordable it has been in decades nationwide — when home prices and average incomes are taken into account, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. The cost of a house is equal to about 19 months of income for an average family, which is at the lowest level in 35 years. (Prices generally average nearly two years of pay.)

“Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own,” Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., told The Wall Street Journal.

Housing prices likely will bottom in 2011, says Scott Simon, a managing director at the money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. While he expects housing prices to possibly drop another 5 percent, he says that is a small amount when in some markets prices have dropped by half or more since housing prices started falling in 2006.
Source: “Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash,” The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 27, 2011)